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This August I wrote about the Blumstein study on criminal recidivism rates.  Ironically, there is a lot of news this week about several states including California, releasing prisoners early due to prison overcrowding!  Now, before you throw your coffee mug through your computer screen allow me to clarify this.  According to Time Magazine:

No state is freeing sex offenders, murderers or habitually violent criminals. Most inmates who are eligible for early release are those who were caught with relatively small amounts of drugs. And generally, early-release guidelines require that inmates be within six months of their official exit date.

Still however mistakes will be made.  There is an old adage, “I didn’t become a criminal until I went to Jail.” Are we putting dangerous people into society? I only raise the question, I don’t really have a strong opinion either way.  One would hope that these offenders embraced rehabilitation programs and will re-enter society as upstanding citizens.  It does beg the question; “Is your employment screening program strong enough to vet these individuals?”  We now have three states; California, Colorado and Kentucky releasing inmates early.  Is your state next?

Do Early-Release Programs Raise the Crime Rate?

Americans famously overspent during the 1990s and early ’00s. It’s a familiar story: we mortgaged oversized homes to buy colossal TVs. But you may have heard less about another commodity we binged on: justice. Americans indulged in an enormous criminal-justice spending spree during the past 25 years, locking up more and more offenders (particularly for drug-related crimes) for longer and longer sentences. Total spending on incarceration rose from $39 per U.S. resident in 1982 to $210 per resident in 2006, according to the most recent figures from the Justice Department. We now spend $62 billion a year on corrections, and about 500 of every 100,000 Americans are behind bars. As recently as the 1970s, the figure was only 100 in 100,000.

Owing to budget crises, many states are now having trouble affording to keep so many people locked up. Some states are cutting incarceration expenses by consolidating prisons; some are trying to slash prison-food and health-care costs. But real savings come only when you reduce prison populations, and so some states — including California, Colorado and Kentucky — have begun releasing inmates early. “The pressure in state legislatures all over the country is to bring down the populations, because we just can’t afford the level of punishment that we’ve had the last 20 years,” says Joan Petersilia, a criminologist at Stanford Law School.

Criminologists say little research has been conducted to determine whether early-release initiatives lead to higher crime rates, although some prisoners who get out will undoubtedly commit crimes that they wouldn’t have been able to commit if they were still behind bars. “There’s no risk-free early-release program,” says Jeremy Travis, president of John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York City. But early release doesn’t simply mean opening the gates and letting inmates run for it. No state is freeing sex offenders, murderers or habitually violent criminals. Most inmates who are eligible for early release are those who were caught with relatively small amounts of drugs. And generally, early-release guidelines require that inmates be within six months of their official exit date.

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Recently a long awaited study was published on the recidivism rates of ex-criminals in the United States.  This study known in our industry as the “Blumstein Study” examined New York State Arrest records for more than 88,000 individuals who were first arrested in 1980.  Their recidivism rates were followed for 27 years through 2007.  The study which was published in the Journal of Criminology was conducted by Carnegie Mellon Professor Alfred Blumstein and Co-Author Kiminori Nakamura.

To summarize the report, ex-offenders do in fact have a high rate of recidivism within the first five years after arrest.  However, the study suggests that for offenders who “stay clean” for five years or more are much less likely to get arrested.  They suggest that after five years they are almost as likely to commit a crime as the rest of the general population of the United States.

The study is timely and important for many reasons.  First, the Obama administration has made it a point to break down those barriers for individuals who have committed crimes to gain employment.  Secondly, the EEOC has a mission to ensure a disparate class of ex-offenders is not created in the Untied States.  The problem is that the study has a lot of holes.

Noted employment screening industry experts and members of the National Association of Professional Background Screeners (NAPBS)  have commented on this study for months.   This week  Security Management Magazine published a great article on the topic.  One well respected expert concluded that because the study was limited to New York state it fails to find those criminals who may have committed crimes in other states.  Blumstein acknowledges this and expects that might lead to a 10 percent increase in the risk findings after that data is added.  The same expert also notes that because the study only looks at arrests and not convictions the true sample size is greatly reduced.

In my opinion these industry experts are spot on! Having examined the findings of the study I find even more shortcomings.  First, what are the parallels between major crimes and minor ones.  Meaning, how does the recidivism rate for someone convicted of Armed Robbery compare to someone convicted of Petty Theft? Secondly, the study is only able to track the rate of crimes re-committed that the individual has been caught committing.  Many times employees are simply fired and never prosecuted for breaking the law.  Lastly, in the pre-employment screening world, many times we are very concerned with “white collar” crimes.  There is no data on crimes committed at the Federal District Court level.  These crimes could include embezzlement, bank fraud, kidnapping etc..  These are only three examples of where I feel the study falls short.  I will reserve further comments because I feel an article brewing in my head and I don’t want to give it all away here!

In conclusion, the study is very important.  It would have had a huge impact on the recent El Vs. SEPTA case, had it been published a few years back.  It’s also important because it could pose a great defense to employers being sued under the Negligent Hiring doctrine.  What we do know is this; the current administration has made the “ex-offender in the workplace” issue a priority to solve.  The question is do employers want the government telling them which perspective employees are a risk enough to take?

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